Warner’s Experiment With HBO Max Is a Win for Consumer Choice, But Is It Bad for Movies?
The entire lineup of Warner Bros’ 2021 slate of films will be made available on HBO Max on the same day they bow in theaters. Christopher Nolan and Denis Villeneuve, two directors I’m an enormous fan of, have both spoken out against Warner’s decision because they feel it undermines the theatrical experience.
There are several factors behind Warner’s decision. First, they don’t know when theaters will “come back” (if ever) so they are trying to make whatever money they can with them now. Second, this will certainly increase HBO Max’s active user count, which is currently at only 12 million (vs 87 million for Disney+ and 195 million for Netflix). Finally, this is an experiment to see what consumers will do when they have the choice to see a movie in its full theatrical glory or from the comfort of their own homes.
Personally I’d be willing to spend the time and money (when it’s safe) to see Nolan’s Tenet and Villeneuve’s Dune in the theater, preferably IMAX, because those filmmakers are masters of creating cinematic experiences. It’s no wonder that they have been the loudest critics of not requiring audiences to view their work in a theater, for them a trip to the cinema is a religious experience.
But for the rest of Warner’s offerings, which will include Godzilla vs Kong, The Matrix 4, The Many Saints of Newark (The Soprano’s prequel) and The Suicide Squad, I’d be just as likely to enjoy them at home in 4K. I’m excited to finally have the option to choose the medium I watch a new movie, especially if this experiment continues after I’m vaccinated and both options are equally safe.
But how will this affect the movies themselves? Blockbuster films often cost $200 million to produce and almost that much again to market. Studios are used to covering that investment at the box office, so if most of us stop going to theaters the economics of blockbusters will change.
It’s difficult to predict exactly how this will all shake out in the end, but my best guess is that theaters will remain a part of the lifecycle of big budget films, but there will be fewer of them. The survivors will be exhibitors with the best experiences like IMAX, or that offer food and drinks like Alamo Drafthouse (because people still don’t want to cook). The biggest movies will have a theatrical window, but it will only last between a few weeks and a couple of months. Mid-budget fare may be available at home on the same date that it releases at the box office, either as a premium rental (for $20) or on the studio’s streaming service.
In this world the theater will have to compete more directly with streaming, and we’ll learn how many moviegoers feel as strongly about the big screen as Christopher Nolan and Denis Villeneuve.
